Here’s one solid assumption for mortgage rates for 2024 – they’ll act like a yo-yo. Again.
To see the extremes that home loans go through, my trusty spreadsheet looked at swings in Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year average fixed rate going back to 1972.
And over the past half-century, the average year’s highest rate was 8.4% vs. a 7% low. That translates to a typical 12-month period having a 1.4 percentage-point swing between the top and bottom mortgage rate.
Yes, rate volatility is fairly normal.
Three odd years
But the size of rate gyrations during the past three years has not been normal.
Remember, the Fed aggressively used interest rates to first stimulate a coronavirus-chilled economy, only to then hike rates to fight an overheated business climate.
Well, 2023 was sort of mainstream with rates running from a 7.8% high to a 6.1% low. That’s a slightly above-average 1.7-point spread, top to bottom.
Still, this was the 11th widest gap in any year during the past half-century.
Yet those fluctuations look tame vs. 2022 when rates ranged from 7.1% to 3.2% as the Fed ended its cheap-money policy. That 3.9-point chasm was the third-largest rate swing in a half-century. Bigger swings were seen in 1980 and 1982, another period when rate hikes were used to battle inflation. read more