The moment political ads disappeared, retailers overtook the airwaves with their pitch to the masses: Holiday shopping season is here.

And it’s a frenzy for retailers. Santas made their debut at malls this week. Target shelves are full of “Wicked”-themed merchandise in anticipation of the movie opening this week. And discounts that started in October are in full swing.

Because Thanksgiving is the latest it can be on the calendar this year, the all-important final stretch of the holiday shopping season is six days shorter. The next two weeks — culminating with Black Friday and Cyber Monday — are even more important than in some other years for retailers from Best Buy and Macy’s to smaller local stores.

“Those big-box retailers pave the way for the season,” said Lindsay Koch, director of brand experience and stores for Minnesota apparel brand Waggle. “This year we started our holiday sale earlier than we ever have.”

While retailers and economists expect shoppers to make only modest increases in their holiday budgets, it still could be a record-setting year for holiday sales. The National Retail Federation predicts up to $989 billion, the best haul since 2019.

But retail leaders have also acknowledged they need to work harder to lure shoppers, ideally over multiple trips.

Given the ongoing hangover of intense inflation, surveys show most shoppers are willing to wait out the best possible deal and stick to their budgets. That means Black Friday, Small Business Saturday and Cyber Monday are still big draws, even if today’s deals feel alluring.

“I’m optimistic about the holidays, but there’s no urgency,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser at Circana. “These early sales are all about capturing the flag as fast as you can, catching the early-bird shoppers — about 18 percent of the consumer base.”

Julie Xiong is definitely pickier this year. She typically shops from Halloween through mid-December for holiday presents. Last year, she said went all out but this year she’s sticking to a budget.

“I don’t have that urge or need to spend,” the 27-year-old said while shopping at Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota, on Monday. “It’s more just checking it out to see what’s on a deal. If I like it, I’ll take it. If I don’t, it’s whatever.”

To break through consumers’ lackadaisical approach to this year’s holidays, retailers are banking on a mix of online pushes and store events to make it easier to find popular gifts and key sales. The deals are right up front, not buried in the aisles, hopefully encouraging impulse buys wherever possible.

“Even amid economic uncertainty and financial constraints, customers are seeking small, affordable indulgences to treat themselves and loved ones,” said Amanda Lai, a director at retail consultancy McMillanDoolittle.

Half of shoppers plan to shop for themselves during the holidays and spend far more than last year, according to KPMG, which reflects “a growing trend of self-indulgence during the holiday season.”

More people intend to shop for themselves on Black Friday than for others, according to a Slickdeals survey.

Retailers are banking on that trend. Target has exclusive Taylor Swift merch dropping at brick-and-mortar locations to get shoppers in the door on Black Friday.

Online shopping is expected to grow 8% this year, outpacing overall retail, according to Adobe Insights, so retailers need to capture that audience while also winning the in-store push.

Brick-and-mortar can always compete as long as it’s an enjoyable experience, said University of St. Thomas marketing professor Seth Ketron.

“There’s only so much entertainment and enjoyment you can get out of shopping online,” he said. “If you can create an environment people want to be in, that gives you a leg up as a retailer.”

And Black Friday weekend is still the most consequential point of the holiday season for retailers.

“This is for us hopefully where we go into the black,” said Sarah Tava, retail lead at Sitka Gear.

Caleb Fravel, a University of Minnesota student, contributed to this story.