Oil market’s focus shifts to demand as Trump reignites trade war
Mia Gindis
(Bloomberg) — While US President Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff strategy has disrupted the oil market for months, his renewed attacks on trading partners this week have solidified consensus on at least one matter: The outlook for crude demand is set to worsen.
Investors in oil had largely overlooked trade news for weeks as the conflict in the Middle East commanded price action, but Trump’s recent barrage of tariff letters — containing some of the highest tax rates yet — is reviving concerns that a global trade war will reduce crude consumption.
The prospect of waning demand is dealing another blow to a market already suffering from widespread expectations of a glut later this year. In addition to the trade war, a dour economic outlook for top crude importer China is fueling concerns that the market will struggle to absorb extra supply in the second half of the year.
“All the focus is on demand and tariffs,” said Joe DeLaura, global energy strategist at Rabobank.
The rapidly weakening outlook triggered the sharpest drop in hedge fund sentiment on oil since February. Money managers slashed their bullish position in US crude by 29,994 lots to 148,106 lots in the week ended July 8, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Short-only bets rose to a five-week high, the figures show.
