December collections of tourist taxes dropped from a year ago, continuing a nine-month downward trend.

Collections totaled $29.8 million for the month, about 4% or $1.4 million lower than December 2022.

December was the eighth month of the past nine in which monthly revenues dropped year-over-year, said Comptroller Phil Diamond, whose office tracks the county’s 6% surcharge on hotel rooms and other short-term rentals.

Despite the trend, revenues have been strong, averaging more than $28 million a month over that time span.

If collections continue at the same stride over the next nine months, the county would rake in $336.5 million, the second-highest total in the history of the tax, out-performing Diamond’s forecast of a 7.5% revenue drop in fiscal year 2023-24.

Collections are down about 5% from last year’s record pace.

Diamond said he would be happy to be wrong as it would mean a stronger local economy.

“But where it goes from here, nobody knows,” he said.

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Collections of the Tourist Development Tax or TDT are viewed as a gauge for the tourism industry’s health.

TDT posted back-to-back record years in fiscal years 2021-22 and 2022-23, peaking at about $359 million.

Diamond cautioned Orange County commissioners last summer to be wary of the volatility of the revenue stream, which can plummet suddenly, as the pandemic proved in 2020 when it interrupted a record period of growth.

A hurricane, a recession and other factors beyond the county’s control also have driven TDT down in the past.

Casandra Matej, president and CEO of Visit Orlando, the TDT-funded marketing organization for Central Florida’s tourism industry, said competition for leisure travelers has led to some softer tourist-tax numbers recently.

“Orlando and Florida’s overall travel performance shifted and rebalanced in 2023 as the domestic leisure travel surge from 2022 faded as travelers returned to other U.S. and international destinations,” she said Wednesday in an email.

Hotel occupancy in metro Orlando fell to 72.7% in 2023 from 73.4% in 2022.

But she said Visit Orlando research “indicates a positive start to 2024 compared to this same time last year.”

Hotel bookings are up 3% for the first quarter of calendar year 2024.

Advance airline ticket sales into Orlando airports from outside the U.S. also are pacing 8% ahead of 2023, indicating “sustained interest and demand in the destination,” Matej said in a forecast provided to the Orlando Sentinel.

January numbers will be reported next month.

February numbers, due in March, could be much higher than last year because of visitors who attended last weekend’s NFL Pro Bowl, the U.S. Olympic Team marathon trials and Megacon, a pop-culture extravaganza at the Orange County Convention Center.

shudak@orlandosentinel.com