If there’s a U.S. economic slowdown, will it be a hard or soft landing?
Global stocks took a hit recently amid fears that the U.S. economy was faltering.
A weaker than expected jobs report, with a rising unemployment rate, was enough for some investors to come to their own conclusions about a coming recession – even if many economists didn’t share the same concerns.
Goldman Sachs raised its odds of a recession occurring in the next year from 15 percent to 25 percent. Some economists have theorized that the economy will have a soft landing, or a slowdown that doesn’t bring about an outright recession, or hard landing.
A complication for economists is that the labor force grew. More Americans entered the job market and looked for work. Those who are on the sidelines and looking for work are officially counted amid the ranks of “unemployed” in federal data, thereby boosting the unemployment rate.
Q: If there’s a U.S. economic slowdown, will it be a hard or soft landing?
Economists
Ray Major, economist
Soft: The recent slowing of the economy evidenced by layoffs, reduction in consumer spending and the correction in the stock market all point to a looming economic correction. The real question is how willing and how quickly the Fed will use monetary policy to correct the economy in order to avoid a hard landing. In the past five years, it has successfully used the tools at their disposal to stave off a recession at any cost and seem to be poised to do it again.